Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 49
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 70.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ GOOGL Avoid 61.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMZN Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 79.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 70.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 74.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ GOOGL Avoid 61.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMZN Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 71.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Macro — Macro Surprise

    ism investigator and human communications intelligence capabilities, enabling direct connections to microsoft 365 for ai-driven investigations and incorporating ai interactions into insider threat investigations. the updates aim to help organizations investigate insider risk faster by understanding intent across both human and ai communications. ai-powered investigations microsoft 365 integration insider risk management communications intelligence cybersecurity compliance data security — Proofpoint Expands AI-Powered Investigations to Microsoft 365 and Deepens Inside

  2. Secondary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 2 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Macro Surprise + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Macro Surprise 88 ism investigator and human communications intelligence capabilities, enabling direct connections to microsoft 365 for ai-driven investigations and incorporating ai interactions into insider threat investigations. the updates aim to help organizations investigate insider risk faster by understanding intent across both human and ai communications. ai-powered investigations microsoft 365 integration insider risk management communications intelligence cybersecurity compliance data security — Proofpoint Expands AI-Powered Investigations to Microsoft 365 and Deepens Inside
  • commodity Oil Selloff 72 XLE +0.0% · 2 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:No Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 718.4 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 718.4 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF QQQ between 718.4 (昨日低点) and 718.4 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 AVGO
AVGO ranked #1 because best reward/risk
SHORT Swing 70.0% 0.91% Reward/Risk 1.82 Entry Zone 361–364 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$364.38 $359.27 RS弱于QQQ -0.89% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Macro Surprise · Oil Selloff Close above stop $364.38
2 GOOGL SHORT Swing 61.0% 0.87% Reward/Risk 5.07 Entry Zone 331–332 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$331.8 $328.34 RS弱于QQQ -1.34% · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Macro Surprise · Oil Selloff Close above stop $331.8
3 AMZN SHORT Swing 66.0% 0.86% Reward/Risk 3.62 Entry Zone 252–253 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$253.2 $250.43 RS弱于QQQ -0.92% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Macro Surprise · Oil Selloff Close above stop $253.2
4 TQQQ SHORT Swing 71.0% 1.97% Reward/Risk 1.92 Entry Zone 71.08–71.27 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$71.9 $69.77 RS弱于QQQ -1.70% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.04 < 0.20(EV门禁) Macro Surprise · Oil Selloff Close above stop $71.9
5 ARM SHORT Swing 79.0% 2.63% Reward/Risk 1.67 Entry Zone 261.04–261.53 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$265.4 $254.42 RS弱于QQQ -1.09% · RS弱于SMH -0.66% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 Macro Surprise · Oil Selloff Close above stop $265.4

Watchlist

  • NVDA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.67% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号
  • TSLA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.52% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.15 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • SMH · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.43% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.03 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • MSFT · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
Bias Strong Bear ★☆☆☆☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Macro — Macro Surprise
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.15 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -0.84%
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Macro Surprise、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -5

Today's Biggest Risk

Low Breadth

  • Low Breadth
  • Macro Surprise / Oil Selloff Whipsaw
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction META · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $646.53–$658.45
Stop · Target $626.62 → $696.29 / T2 $722.13
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +13.0%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $626.62 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 META:理想入场 $646.53–$658.45,止损 $626.62,目标 $696.29(约 +6.1%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-10-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Macro Surprise 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (4.34%)

Driver「Macro — Macro Surprise」→ TLT, IEF, UUP

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
TLT — — —
IEF — — —
UUP — — —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →