Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 48
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLE Avoid 71.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 set at session re-eval: ARM · ADVISORY

Primary changed vs Morning Ideal

↻ ARM LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 268–270 · Live ER +2.97% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ ARM LONG ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability + best catalyst alignment 77.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ AMD LONG 60.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLE Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  2. Secondary AI — AI Chip Rotation

    SMH +0.3% · semis lagging · AI headline flow

  3. Tertiary Positioning — XLE Rotation

    XLE leading vs XLF

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Trade Policy

  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 719.0 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF SMH reclaims strength + QQQ > 719.0 (昨日高点) THEN SHORT-cover / tactical LONG

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 719.0 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF SMH continues lower + QQQ < 719.0 (昨日低点) THEN avoid dip-buy; SHORT semis

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF QQQ between 719.0 (昨日低点) and 719.0 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF chip selloff continues without QQQ breakdown THEN WAIT

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 AMD
AMD ranked #1 because weakest RS
LONG Intraday 72.0% 0.81% Reward/Risk 1.35 Entry Zone 508–511 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$506.12 $513.3 RS vs QQQ +5.71% · RS vs SMH +4.71% · Volume 信号 Trade Policy Close below stop $506.12

Watchlist

  • ARM · Pass · RS vs QQQ +3.63% · RS vs SMH +2.63% · News 1 · Volume 信号
  • AVGO · Pass · RS vs QQQ +2.91% · RS vs SMH +1.91% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • META · Pass · RS vs QQQ +5.12% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.14 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • TSLA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +3.54% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • XLE · Pass · RS vs QQQ +2.30% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
Bias Neutral ★★★☆☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Trade Policy
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • QQQ Pass Score 0.0 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -0.54%
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

Low Breadth

  • Low Breadth
  • Trade Policy Whipsaw
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction META · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $634.10–$645.00
Stop · Target $616.17 → $678.94 / T2 $707.38
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +7.2%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $616.17 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 META:理想入场 $634.10–$645.00,止损 $616.17,目标 $678.94(约 +5.6%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-09-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Trade Policy 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (4.26%)

Driver「Political — Trade Policy」→ SMH, NVDA, SPY

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
SMH 11.24% +6.98% ▲
NVDA 1.68% -2.58% ▼
SPY -0.04% -4.30% ▼

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →