Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 47
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ ARM LONG ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 71.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ MU LONG 66.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ AMD LONG 66.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 60.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLK Avoid 65.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 59.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 unchanged vs Morning: ARM · ADVISORY

Morning: ARM LONG · TRIGGERED

ARM LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 257–258 · Live ER +1.89% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ ARM LONG ARM ranked #1 because highest probability + best reward/risk 71.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 60.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 59.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLK Avoid 65.0% Avoid

#1:ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Fed — Fed Headlines

    rate hike — CPI Can Give Fed ‘Easy Out’ on a Rate Hike, BMO’s Davis Says

  2. Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    Wheat Rises as Russia Calls Ukraine Shipping Plan ‘Unrealistic’

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 6 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Fed Headlines + Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk

  • breaking Fed Headlines 88 rate hike — CPI Can Give Fed ‘Easy Out’ on a Rate Hike, BMO’s Davis Says
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Wheat Rises as Russia Calls Ukraine Shipping Plan ‘Unrealistic’
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — Nuclear Stock Face-Off: Is Constellation Energy or Vistra the Better Buy Right N
  • commodity Oil Selloff 78 XLE +0.0% · 6 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Top Research Reports for Apple, Broadcom & Shell

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 717.7 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 717.7 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 717.7 (昨日低点) and 717.7 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability
LONG Intraday 71.0% 3.33% Reward/Risk 2.21 Entry Zone 256–258 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$252.98 $265.42 RS vs QQQ +6.79% · RS vs SMH +3.14% · News 1 · Volume 信号 Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $252.98 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 MU LONG Intraday 66.0% 2.28% Reward/Risk 2.78 Entry Zone 1021–1027 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$1016.0 $1047.75 RS vs QQQ +6.62% · RS vs SMH +2.97% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $1016.0 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 AMD LONG Intraday 66.0% 1.98% Reward/Risk 2.54 Entry Zone 482–485 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$480.01 $493.37 RS vs QQQ +5.79% · RS vs SMH +2.14% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $480.01 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • SMH · Pass · RS vs QQQ +3.65% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 期望R 0.04 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • XLK · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.70% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.47% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高
  • META · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.43% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 · Volume 信号
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade ARM · LONG · Stock · ER +3.33%
Direction LONG Intraday
Win Prob 71.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 256–258 Above 256.9 (VWAP) vwap
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $259.76 Dist +1.13% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +3.33%
Stop / Target $252.98 → $265.42
R:R Reward/Risk 2.21 · Risk:Reward 1:0.45
P&L +$214.0 / -$97.0
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Fed — Fed Headlines
Confidence 71%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS vs QQQ +6.79% · RS vs SMH +3.14% · News 1

#1:ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Highest Relative Strength 6.79 vs 6.62
  2. Largest Expected Range 5.13 vs 4.56
  3. Highest Probability 71.0 vs 66.0
  4. Best Risk Reward 2.2 vs 1.0

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +18.0
  • Catalyst +5.0
  • Volume +4.0
  • Macro -6.0
  • Total 71.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$214.0
失败 Loss -$97.0
每股价差 Reward $8.56 / Risk $3.88 Reward/Risk 2.21 · Risk:Reward 1:0.45

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% ↓ Position 64.2% ↓ 1 unit(s) ↓ Max Loss $97.0

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $256.86 Confidence 77 vwap
  • ✓ VWAP $256.86 100%
Stop $252.98 Confidence 77 orb_low
  • ✓ ORB Low $252.98 100%
Target $265.42 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • ✓ Expected Close $265.42 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • MU (#2)
    • Win% 71 vs 66
    • ER 3.3% vs 2.3%
    • Score 0.77 vs 0.75
    • RS +6.8% vs +6.6%
    • R:R 2.2 vs 1.0
  • AMD (#3)
    • Win% 71 vs 66
    • ER 3.3% vs 2.0%
    • Score 0.77 vs 0.65
    • RS +6.8% vs +5.8%
    • R:R 2.2 vs 1.0
  • SMH (#4)
    • Win% 71 vs 60
    • ER 3.3% vs 0.9%
    • Score 0.77 vs 0.29
    • RS +6.8% vs +3.6%
    • R:R 2.2 vs 0.74
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • XLK (#5)
    • Win% 71 vs 65
    • ER 3.3% vs 0.2%
    • Score 0.77 vs 0.07
    • RS +6.8% vs +0.7%
    • R:R 2.2 vs 0.62
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TQQQ (#6)
    • Win% 71 vs 59
    • ER 3.3% vs 0.1%
    • Score 0.77 vs 0.03
    • RS +6.8% vs +0.5%
    • R:R 2.2 vs 0.62
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.03 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Fed Headlines、Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk

Today's Biggest Risk

Extended Gap on ARM

  • Extended Gap on ARM
  • Fed Headlines / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw
  • VIX Spike
  • Don't Buy First Green Candle
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release
  • Don't Fight Volatility

Similar Days (Historical)

  • 2026-08-28 win 3.92%

Expected Value

EV $+124 (win +$214 @ 71.0% · loss -$97)

「做多 ARM:在 256.86 附近入场,目标 265.42,预期 +3.33%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction NVDA · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $227.09–$231.59
Stop · Target $219.47 → $246.14 / T2 $253.99
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +5.9%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $219.47 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 NVDA:理想入场 $227.09–$231.59,止损 $219.47,目标 $246.14(约 +6.6%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-08-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Fed Headlines 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Stock Edge

Why vs #2:ARM RS +6.8% vs MU +6.6%;Win% 71 vs 66;higher beta (24.4 vs 23.8);relative strength

final = win_prob(71%) × ER(2.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS vs QQQ +6.79%
  • RS vs SMH +3.14%
  • News 1
  • Volume 信号
  • VIX 走高

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (4.44%)

Driver「Fed — Fed Headlines」→ TLT, IEF, UUP

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
TLT — — —
IEF — — —
UUP — — —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →