Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 45
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ GOOGL Avoid 76.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLF Avoid 71.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 set at session re-eval: NVDA · ADVISORY

Primary changed vs Morning Ideal

↻ NVDA LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 226–228 · Live ER +1.70% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ NVDA LONG NVDA ranked #1 because highest probability + best catalyst alignment 77.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ GOOGL Avoid 76.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLF Avoid 71.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Fed — Fed Headlines

    rate hike — If a Stock Market Crash Is Coming, History Says This Is the Smartest Move Invest

  2. Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    Lloyd’s Insurance Market Sees £1.4 Billion Loss From US-Iran War

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Fed Headlines + Geopolitical Risk (Iran) + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Fed Headlines 88 rate hike — If a Stock Market Crash Is Coming, History Says This Is the Smartest Move Invest
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Lloyd’s Insurance Market Sees £1.4 Billion Loss From US-Iran War
  • commodity Oil Selloff 72 XLE +0.0% · 2 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 707.6 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 707.6 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 707.6 (昨日低点) and 707.6 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 NVDA
NVDA ranked #1 because highest probability + best catalyst alignment
LONG Intraday 77.0% 0.21% Reward/Risk 0.31 Entry Zone 225.70–226.18 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$224.41 $226.41 RS vs QQQ +2.88% · RS vs SMH +2.97% · News 7 · Volume 信号 Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $224.41 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 META LONG Intraday 66.0% 0.34% Reward/Risk 0.29 Entry Zone 599–601 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$592.85 $602.0 RS vs QQQ +3.13% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $592.85 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 MU LONG Intraday 72.0% 0.55% Reward/Risk 0.92 Entry Zone 947–953 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$944.23 $955.11 RS vs QQQ +1.62% · RS vs SMH +1.71% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $944.23 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 TSLA LONG Intraday 71.0% 0.53% Reward/Risk 0.45 Entry Zone 360.60–361.56 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$356.9 $362.98 RS vs QQQ +1.58% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.01 < 0.20(EV门禁) Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $356.9 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
5 GOOGL LONG Intraday 76.0% 0.52% Reward/Risk 1.86 Entry Zone 337–339 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$337.12 $339.81 RS vs QQQ +0.95% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 · Volume 信号 Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $337.12 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • XLF · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.02% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.15 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • XLE · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.22% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.15 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • DIA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.74% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 2 · Volume 信号
  • SPY · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.44% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.05 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • SMH · Pass · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Fed — Fed Headlines
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • SPY Pass Score 0.04 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -0.02%
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Fed Headlines、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Oil Selloff

Today's Biggest Risk

Fed Headlines / Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Whipsaw

  • Fed Headlines / Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction NVDA · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $219.40–$223.66
Stop · Target $212.23 → $237.34 / T2 $245.29
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +7.0%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $212.23 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 NVDA:理想入场 $219.40–$223.66,止损 $212.23,目标 $237.34(约 +6.4%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-03-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Fed Headlines 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (5.92%)

Driver「Fed — Fed Headlines」→ TLT, IEF, UUP

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
TLT — — —
IEF — — —
UUP — — —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →