Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 44
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 74.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 69.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 74.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 48.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 48.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 74.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 74.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 48.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 61.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 48.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    Russia Pauses Grain Export Duty as Black Sea Exports Stall

  2. Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    Stock Market Today, Sept. 1: Stocks Slide and Oil Surges Amid U.S.-Iran Tension

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 4 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk (Iran) + Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Russia Pauses Grain Export Duty as Black Sea Exports Stall
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Stock Market Today, Sept. 1: Stocks Slide and Oil Surges Amid U.S.-Iran Tension
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Stocks Fall as US-Iran Turmoil Keeps Oil Elevated: Markets Wrap
  • commodity Oil Selloff 76 XLE +0.0% · 4 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:No Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 716.8 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth
  • IF SMH reclaims strength + QQQ > 716.8 (昨日高点) THEN SHORT-cover / tactical LONG

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 716.8 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH
  • IF SMH continues lower + QQQ < 716.8 (昨日低点) THEN avoid dip-buy; SHORT semis

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 716.8 (昨日低点) and 716.8 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility
  • IF chip selloff continues without QQQ breakdown THEN WAIT

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability
SHORT Swing 74.0% 0.61% Reward/Risk 0.48 Entry Zone 230.64–231.06 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$233.77 $229.45 RS弱于QQQ -2.67% · RS弱于SMH -1.68% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $233.77 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 MU SHORT Swing 69.0% 0.16% Reward/Risk 0.14 Entry Zone 923–924 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$933.44 $921.99 RS弱于QQQ -1.71% · RS弱于SMH -0.72% · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $933.44 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 TSLA SHORT Swing 66.0% 0.44% Reward/Risk 0.49 Entry Zone 355.30–355.86 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$358.79 $354.01 RS弱于QQQ -1.55% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $358.79 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 AMD SHORT Swing 74.0% 0.46% Reward/Risk 0.47 Entry Zone 455.22–455.83 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$460.0 $453.42 RS弱于QQQ -1.62% · RS弱于SMH -0.63% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $460.0 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
5 TQQQ SHORT Swing 48.0% 0.31% Reward/Risk 0.25 Entry Zone 68.26–68.37 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$69.15 $68.1 RS弱于QQQ -2.95% · Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation · 期望R -0.04 < 0.20(EV门禁) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $69.15 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • SMH · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.99% · Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • AMZN · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.62% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • XLK · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.40% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • MSFT · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.18% · News 3 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
Bias Strong Bear ★☆☆☆☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.23 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -1.46%
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -5

Today's Biggest Risk

Low Breadth

  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk / Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Whipsaw
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction AAPL · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $322.09–$326.40
Stop · Target $315.43 → $341.69 / T2 $357.96
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 AAPL · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +4.9%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $315.43 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 AAPL:理想入场 $322.09–$326.40,止损 $315.43,目标 $341.69(约 +5.0%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-02-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (4.58%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE -1.53% -6.11% ▼
UUP — — —
QQQ 4.58% +0.00% —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →