Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 43
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMZN Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ GOOGL Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 59.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MSFT Avoid 67.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ DIA Avoid 66.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMZN Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ GOOGL Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 59.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 80.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MSFT Avoid 67.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 77.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    Oil Tankers Struck in Strait of Hormuz as Iran War Escalates | The Pulse 9/1/202

  2. Secondary Macro — Macro Surprise

    ism may still be justified for long-term investors. ai stocks buy recommendation market pullback long-term investing valuation revenue growth — Jensen Huang Told Investors in June to 'Buy at a Discount' During Nvidia's Sell-

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 4 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk (Iran) + Macro Surprise + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Oil Tankers Struck in Strait of Hormuz as Iran War Escalates | The Pulse 9/1/202
  • breaking Macro Surprise 88 ism may still be justified for long-term investors. ai stocks buy recommendation market pullback long-term investing valuation revenue growth — Jensen Huang Told Investors in June to 'Buy at a Discount' During Nvidia's Sell-
  • commodity Oil Selloff 76 XLE +0.0% · 4 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:No Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 716.4 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 716.4 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 716.4 (昨日低点) and 716.4 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 AMZN
AMZN ranked #1 because best reward/risk
SHORT Intraday 72.0% 1.79% Reward/Risk 1.69 Entry Zone 257.61–258.37 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$260.72 $253.38 RS弱于QQQ -3.07% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 期望R 0.06 < 0.20(EV门禁) Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Macro Surprise Close above stop $260.72 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 GOOGL SHORT Intraday 72.0% 1.05% Reward/Risk 1.34 Entry Zone 337.23–337.31 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$339.92 $333.72 RS弱于QQQ -1.88% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Macro Surprise Close above stop $339.92 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 TQQQ SHORT Intraday 59.0% 1.47% Reward/Risk 0.43 Entry Zone 69.78–70.20 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$72.38 $68.96 RS弱于QQQ -2.18% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Macro Surprise Close above stop $72.38 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 MSFT SHORT Intraday 67.0% 0.9% Reward/Risk 0.97 Entry Zone 502.23–503.00 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$507.29 $498.08 RS弱于QQQ -1.17% · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Macro Surprise Close above stop $507.29 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
5 META SHORT Intraday 77.0% 1.1% Reward/Risk 0.98 Entry Zone 566.67–567.20 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$573.3 $560.68 RS弱于QQQ -1.16% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Macro Surprise Close above stop $573.3 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • DIA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.17% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 5 (利空做空) · Volume 信号
  • AAPL · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 3 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高
  • XLF · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 期望R 0.12 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • SPY · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
Bias Bear ★★☆☆☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.14 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -1.06%
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Macro Surprise、Oil Selloff
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -2

Today's Biggest Risk

Low Breadth

  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk (Iran) / Macro Surprise Whipsaw
  • VIX Spike
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release
  • Don't Fight Volatility

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction NVDA · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $213.34–$217.40
Stop · Target $206.53 → $230.37 / T2 $238.43
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +5.9%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $206.53 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 NVDA:理想入场 $213.34–$217.40,止损 $206.53,目标 $230.37(约 +6.3%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-01-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (4.62%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 0.49% -4.13% ▼
UUP — — —
QQQ 4.62% +0.00% —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →