Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 42
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★★☆ ARM SHORT ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 80.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 57.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLK Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 unchanged vs Morning: ARM · ADVISORY

Morning: ARM SHORT · TRIGGERED

ARM SHORT · Ideal Entry Zone 243.05–243.70 · Live ER +1.50% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★★☆ ARM SHORT ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + highest probability + best reward/risk 80.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 57.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLK Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 57.0% Avoid

#1:ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    nuclear — This Newly Public Nuclear IPO Is Already Using AI to Speed Up Reactor Design. Is

  2. Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    US, Iran Exchange Strikes for First Time in About a Month

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 5 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk (Iran) + Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — This Newly Public Nuclear IPO Is Already Using AI to Speed Up Reactor Design. Is
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 US, Iran Exchange Strikes for First Time in About a Month
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Oil Rises As US and Iran Exchange Attacks | The Opening Trade 8/31/2026
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 US, Iran Exchange Attacks, Apple's Changing of the Guard | The Pulse 8/31/2026
  • commodity Oil Selloff 78 XLE +0.0% · 5 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Tim Cook Committed Apple to a $60 Billion Domestic Manufacturing Bet Just Weeks

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:No Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 721.1 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth
  • IF SMH reclaims strength + QQQ > 721.1 (昨日高点) THEN SHORT-cover / tactical LONG

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 721.1 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH
  • IF SMH continues lower + QQQ < 721.1 (昨日低点) THEN avoid dip-buy; SHORT semis

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 721.1 (昨日低点) and 721.1 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility
  • IF chip selloff continues without QQQ breakdown THEN WAIT

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability
SHORT Swing 80.0% 2.39% Reward/Risk 1.79 Entry Zone 239–240 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$242.88 $233.94 RS弱于QQQ -5.61% · RS弱于SMH -3.23% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $242.88 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • NVDA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -3.19% · RS弱于SMH -0.81% · News 8 (利空做空) · Volume 信号
  • SMH · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -2.38% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation
  • TSLA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.37% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • XLK · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.86% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.80% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation
Bias Strong Bear ★☆☆☆☆
Best Trade ARM · SHORT · Stock · ER +2.39%
Direction SHORT Swing
Win Prob 80.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 239–240 Below 239.7 (VWAP) vwap
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $238.70 Dist +0.40% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +2.39%
Stop / Target $242.88 → $233.94
R:R Reward/Risk 1.79 · Risk:Reward 1:0.56
P&L +$177.63 / -$99.51
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 80%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS弱于QQQ -5.61% · RS弱于SMH -3.23% · Volume 信号

#1:ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Highest Relative Strength -5.61 vs 4.23
  2. Largest Expected Range 3.98 vs 2.35
  3. Highest Probability 80.0 vs 72.0

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +20.0
  • Volume +4.0
  • Macro +6.0
  • Total 80.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$177.63
失败 Loss -$99.51
每股价差 Reward $5.73 / Risk $3.21 Reward/Risk 1.79 · Risk:Reward 1:0.56

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% ↓ Position 74.3% ↓ 1 unit(s) ↓ Max Loss $99.51

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $239.67 Confidence 89 vwap
  • ✓ VWAP $239.67 70%
  • ✓ Below Current $238.7 30%
Stop $242.88 Confidence 77 orb_high
  • ✓ ORB High $242.88 100%
Target $233.94 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • ✓ Expected Close $233.94 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • NVDA (#2)
    • Win% 80 vs 57
    • ER 2.4% vs 1.1%
    • Score 0.8 vs 0.3
    • RS -5.6% vs -3.2%
    • R:R 1.78 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • SMH (#3)
    • Win% 80 vs 54
    • ER 2.4% vs 0.7%
    • Score 0.8 vs 0.22
    • RS -5.6% vs -2.4%
    • R:R 1.78 vs 1.12
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TSLA (#4)
    • Win% 80 vs 72
    • ER 2.4% vs 0.4%
    • Score 0.8 vs 0.22
    • RS -5.6% vs -1.4%
    • R:R 1.78 vs 1.5
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • XLK (#5)
    • Win% 80 vs 72
    • ER 2.4% vs 0.3%
    • Score 0.8 vs 0.17
    • RS -5.6% vs -0.9%
    • R:R 1.78 vs 1.6
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TQQQ (#6)
    • Win% 80 vs 54
    • ER 2.4% vs 0.5%
    • Score 0.8 vs 0.16
    • RS -5.6% vs -1.8%
    • R:R 1.78 vs 1.14
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.16 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -0.86%
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -5

Today's Biggest Risk

Extended Gap on ARM

  • Extended Gap on ARM
  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk / Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Whipsaw
  • VIX Spike
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Buy First Green Candle
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release
  • Don't Fight Volatility

Expected Value

EV $+122 (win +$178 @ 80.0% · loss -$100)

「做空 ARM:在 239.67 附近入场,目标 233.94,预期 +2.39%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction MSFT · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $502.38–$508.79
Stop · Target $492.63 → $532.62 / T2 $557.99
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 MSFT · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +6.3%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $492.63 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 MSFT:理想入场 $502.38–$508.79,止损 $492.63,目标 $532.62(约 +5.0%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-08-31-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Relative Weakness

Why vs #2:ARM RS -5.6% vs NVDA -3.2%;ER 2.0% vs 1.1%;Win% 80 vs 57;higher beta (7.5 vs 4.7);relative weakness play

final = win_prob(80%) × ER(2.0%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS弱于QQQ -5.61%
  • RS弱于SMH -3.23%
  • Volume 信号
  • VIX 走高

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (3.95%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 1.11% -2.84% ▼
UUP — — —
QQQ 3.95% +0.00% —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →