Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 40
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLK Avoid 66.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 60.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLK Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 71.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    nuclear — Constellation's New Power Deals Are Piling Up. Here's Why the Stock Isn't Reflec

  2. Secondary Macro — Macro Surprise

    ism as nvidia jumps: markets wrap — Tech Stocks Rally on AI Optimism as Nvidia Jumps: Markets Wrap

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Macro Surprise + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — Constellation's New Power Deals Are Piling Up. Here's Why the Stock Isn't Reflec
  • breaking Macro Surprise 88 ism as nvidia jumps: markets wrap — Tech Stocks Rally on AI Optimism as Nvidia Jumps: Markets Wrap
  • commodity Oil Selloff 74 XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 710.7 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 710.7 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 710.7 (昨日低点) and 710.7 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS
LONG Intraday 72.0% 0.98% Reward/Risk 0.45 Entry Zone 263–265 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$258.0 $266.34 RS vs QQQ +6.56% · RS vs SMH +4.82% · Volume 信号 Geopolitical Risk · Macro Surprise Close below stop $258.0 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • NVDA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +3.46% · RS vs SMH +1.72% · News 5 · Volume 信号
  • MU · Pass · RS vs QQQ +3.55% · RS vs SMH +1.81% · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.05 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.91% · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.18 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • SMH · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.74% · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.20 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • XLK · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.54% · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.16 < 0.20(EV门禁)
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.2 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Macro Surprise、Oil Selloff

Today's Biggest Risk

Geopolitical Risk / Macro Surprise Whipsaw

  • Geopolitical Risk / Macro Surprise Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction NVDA · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $219.10–$222.49
Stop · Target $213.66 → $232.91 / T2 $244.0
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -3.6%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $213.66 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 NVDA:理想入场 $219.10–$222.49,止损 $213.66,目标 $232.91(约 +5.0%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-08-27-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (5.46%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 1.49% -3.97% ▼
UUP — — —
QQQ 5.46% +0.00% —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →