Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 38
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 74.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 74.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 70.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 51.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLE Avoid 71.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 set at session re-eval: MU · ADVISORY

Primary changed vs Morning Ideal

↻ MU SHORT · Ideal Entry Zone 930–935 · Live ER +1.77% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ MU SHORT MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + highest probability 74.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 74.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 48.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLE Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLK Avoid 65.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    Stock Market Today, Aug. 24: Nvidia Extends Losses as Tech Stocks Retreat

  2. Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    The US‘s Economic `D-Day’ for Iran Doesn’t Live Up to Bessent’s Hype

  3. Tertiary Macro — Macro Surprise

    ism about the sustainability of the ai-driven memory boom, with concerns about pricing deceleration evident in companies like sandisk. shareholder return memory stocks ai demand buyback pricing deceleration cycle peak earnings doubt — Samsung Just Authorized Its Largest Shareholder Return Ever. Every Major Memory

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Stock Market Today, Aug. 24: Nvidia Extends Losses as Tech Stocks Retreat
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Russia Eyes Grain Duty Pause Through Year End on Ukraine Strikes
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 The US‘s Economic `D-Day’ for Iran Doesn’t Live Up to Bessent’s Hype
  • breaking Macro Surprise 88 ism about the sustainability of the ai-driven memory boom, with concerns about pricing deceleration evident in companies like sandisk. shareholder return memory stocks ai demand buyback pricing deceleration cycle peak earnings doubt — Samsung Just Authorized Its Largest Shareholder Return Ever. Every Major Memory
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:No Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 713.4 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 713.4 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 713.4 (昨日低点) and 713.4 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 MU
MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability
SHORT Intraday 74.0% 0.45% Reward/Risk 0.27 Entry Zone 912–917 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$930.0 $910.43 RS弱于QQQ -3.37% · RS弱于SMH -2.86% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $930.0 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 AVGO SHORT Intraday 74.0% 0.0% — Entry Zone 358.76–358.76 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$362.0 $358.76 RS弱于QQQ -1.45% · RS弱于SMH -0.94% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $362.0 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 AMD SHORT Intraday 70.0% 0.32% Reward/Risk 0.16 Entry Zone 457–459 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$467.61 $456.75 RS弱于QQQ -0.76% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $467.61 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 TSLA SHORT Intraday 66.0% 1.02% Reward/Risk 3.96 Entry Zone 351–352 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$352.43 $347.92 RS弱于QQQ -3.18% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $352.43 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
5 NVDA SHORT Intraday 51.0% 1.15% Reward/Risk 80.67 Entry Zone 210.86–210.93 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$210.93 $208.48 RS弱于QQQ -1.69% · RS弱于SMH -1.18% · News 5 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $210.93 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • XLE · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.74% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • XLK · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.50% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • SMH · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.51% · Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.27% · Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
Bias Bear ★★☆☆☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.12 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -0.07%
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -3

Today's Biggest Risk

Low Breadth

  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction NVDA · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $210.95–$214.52
Stop · Target $220.41 → $199.8 / T2 $190.42
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -7.3%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $220.41 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 NVDA:理想入场 $210.95–$214.52,止损 $220.41,目标 $199.8(约 +5.6%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-08-25-001 · Macro is today's primary market driver

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (5.06%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE -1.03% -6.09% ▼
UUP — — —
QQQ 5.06% +0.00% —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →