Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 36
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ MU LONG MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 76.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 76.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 70.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 70.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 75.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 75.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Morning: MU LONG · TRIGGERED

MU LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 977–983 · Live ER +1.83% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 64.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 76.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 76.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 75.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 75.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLE Avoid 75.0% Avoid

#1:MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    nuclear — India’s Nuclear Opening Comes With a High Security Bar

  2. Secondary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  3. Tertiary Momentum — AI Momentum

    SMH +1.4% leading

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — India’s Nuclear Opening Comes With a High Security Bar
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 716.1 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 716.1 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 716.1 (昨日低点) and 716.1 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 MU
MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability
LONG Intraday 76.0% 2.3% Reward/Risk 2.11 Entry Zone 977–983 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$969.26 $1002.5 RS vs QQQ +5.08% · RS vs SMH +3.49% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 Geopolitical Risk · Trade Policy Close below stop $969.26 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • ARM · Pass · RS vs QQQ +2.15% · RS vs SMH +0.56% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落
  • AMD · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.75% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 · 期望R 0.04 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • AVGO · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.72% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 · 期望R -0.02 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • SMH · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.59% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落
  • META · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.72% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落
Bias Neutral ★★★☆☆
Best Trade MU · LONG · Stock · ER +2.30%
Direction LONG Intraday
Win Prob 76.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 977–983 Above 979.9 (VWAP) vwap
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $984.51 Dist +0.47% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +2.30%
Stop / Target $969.26 → $1002.5
R:R Reward/Risk 2.11 · Risk:Reward 1:0.47
P&L +$203.04 / -$96.12
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 76%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS vs QQQ +5.08% · RS vs SMH +3.49% · Volume 信号

#1:MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Highest Relative Strength 5.08 vs 2.15
  2. Largest Expected Range 3.66 vs 2.5
  3. Highest Probability 76.0 vs 76.0
  4. Best Risk Reward 2.11 vs 0.62

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +18.0
  • Volume +4.0
  • Macro +4.0
  • Total 76.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$203.04
失败 Loss -$96.12
每股价差 Reward $22.56 / Risk $10.68 Reward/Risk 2.11 · Risk:Reward 1:0.47

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% ↓ Position 88.2% ↓ 1 unit(s) ↓ Max Loss $96.12

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $979.94 Confidence 89 vwap
  • ✓ VWAP $979.94 70%
  • ✓ Above Current $984.51 30%
Stop $969.26 Confidence 77 orb_low
  • ✓ ORB Low $969.26 100%
Target $1002.5 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • ✓ Expected Close $1002.5 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • ARM (#2)
    • ER 2.3% vs 0.7%
    • Score 0.69 vs 0.26
    • RS +5.1% vs +2.1%
    • R:R 2.11 vs 0.44
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • AMD (#3)
    • Win% 76 vs 70
    • ER 2.3% vs 0.5%
    • Score 0.69 vs 0.18
    • RS +5.1% vs +1.8%
    • R:R 2.11 vs 0.48
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • AVGO (#4)
    • Win% 76 vs 70
    • ER 2.3% vs 0.5%
    • Score 0.69 vs 0.17
    • RS +5.1% vs +1.7%
    • R:R 2.11 vs 0.4
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • SMH (#5)
    • Win% 76 vs 75
    • ER 2.3% vs 0.4%
    • Score 0.69 vs 0.16
    • RS +5.1% vs +1.6%
    • R:R 2.11 vs 0.4
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • META (#6)
    • Win% 76 vs 75
    • ER 2.3% vs 0.2%
    • Score 0.69 vs 0.07
    • RS +5.1% vs +0.7%
    • R:R 2.11 vs 0.62
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • Index Edge NO 指数方向不明或幅度不足
  • QQQ Pass Score 0.0 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -0.02%
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

Extended Gap on MU

  • Extended Gap on MU
  • Geopolitical Risk / Trade Policy Whipsaw
  • Don't Buy First Green Candle
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

Expected Value

EV $+131 (win +$203 @ 76.0% · loss -$96)

「做多 MU:在 979.94 附近入场,目标 1002.5,预期 +2.30%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction META · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $549.85–$561.09
Stop · Target $580.26 → $513.15 / T2 $493.97
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -8.3%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $580.26 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 META:理想入场 $549.85–$561.09,止损 $580.26,目标 $513.15(约 +7.0%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-08-21-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Sector Edge

Why vs #2:MU RS +5.1% vs ARM +2.1%;ER 1.8% vs 0.7%;relative strength

final = win_prob(76%) × ER(1.8%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS vs QQQ +5.08%
  • RS vs SMH +3.49%
  • Volume 信号
  • VIX 回落

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (4.68%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE -0.94% -5.62% ▼
UUP — — —
QQQ 4.68% +0.00% —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →