Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

今日 Day 35
2/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 74.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 74.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 75.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 53.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLK Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 53.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    If a Stock Market Crash Is Coming, These 2 Growth Stocks Might Be Worth Selling

  2. Secondary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  3. Tertiary AI — AI Chip Rotation

    SMH -2.1% · semis lagging · AI headline flow

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 If a Stock Market Crash Is Coming, These 2 Growth Stocks Might Be Worth Selling
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — Nvidia Chip-Filled Data Centers Need More Power Than Any Utility Can Promise. He
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 717.5 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF SMH reclaims strength + QQQ > 717.5 (昨日高点) THEN SHORT-cover / tactical LONG

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 717.5 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF SMH continues lower + QQQ < 717.5 (昨日低点) THEN avoid dip-buy; SHORT semis

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 717.5 (昨日低点) and 717.5 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF chip selloff continues without QQQ breakdown THEN WAIT

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 AVGO
AVGO ranked #1 because largest expected range
SHORT Intraday 74.0% 2.04% Reward/Risk 2.02 Entry Zone 364–367 PREMARKET
Entry still valid
$369.28 $358.12 RS弱于QQQ -3.80% · RS弱于SMH -2.34% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $369.28 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 AMD SHORT Intraday 74.0% 2.16% Reward/Risk 1.38 Entry Zone 467.03–467.73 PREMARKET
Entry still valid
$474.68 $457.29 RS弱于QQQ -3.70% · RS弱于SMH -2.24% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $474.68 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 ARM SHORT Intraday 75.0% 1.67% Reward/Risk 0.82 Entry Zone 248–250 PREMARKET
Entry still valid
$254.23 $245.02 RS弱于QQQ -1.75% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $254.23 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 SMH SHORT Intraday 53.0% 1.56% Reward/Risk 1.18 Entry Zone 561–562 PREMARKET
Entry still valid
$569.0 $552.79 RS弱于QQQ -1.46% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $569.0 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
5 XLK SHORT Intraday 71.0% 1.25% Reward/Risk 1.64 Entry Zone 183.50–183.82 PREMARKET
Entry still valid
$185.06 $181.36 RS弱于QQQ -0.77% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $185.06 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • TQQQ · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.55% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation
  • XLF · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • NVDA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.34% · 半导体内领涨 +1.12% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 8 (利空做空)
  • DIA · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 5 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
Bias Neutral ★★★☆☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE
Win Prob
Ideal Entry (frozen)
Entry Status PREMARKET Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live Entry still valid
Stop / Target
R:R
P&L
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.07 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -0.74%
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk、Trade Policy
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -1

Today's Biggest Risk

Low Breadth

  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction AAPL · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $311.60–$316.73
Stop · Target $303.24 → $332.5 / T2 $347.36
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 AAPL · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +4.8%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $303.24 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 AAPL:理想入场 $311.60–$316.73,止损 $303.24,目标 $332.5(约 +5.3%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-08-20-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (-0.79%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 1.05% +1.84%
UUP 0.08% +0.87%
QQQ -0.79% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
待运行
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
待运行
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
待运行
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
待运行
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
待运行
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
待运行
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
待运行