Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 31
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ MU LONG MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 72.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 59.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Morning: MU LONG · TRIGGERED

MU LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 969–975 · Live ER +2.41% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 60.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 72.0% Avoid

#1:MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    Oil Spills Show Cost of Keeping Middle East Barrels Flowing

  2. Secondary Macro — GDP

    Scheduled: National Accounts - GDP (Eurostat)

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + GDP

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Oil Spills Show Cost of Keeping Middle East Barrels Flowing
  • scheduled GDP 78 Scheduled: National Accounts - GDP (Eurostat)
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 723.7 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 723.7 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 723.7 (昨日低点) and 723.7 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 MU
MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability
LONG Swing 72.0% 3.09% Reward/Risk 1.37 Entry Zone 969–975 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$949.83 $1001.82 RS vs QQQ +5.94% · RS vs SMH +6.44% · Volume 信号 Geopolitical Risk · GDP Close below stop $949.83 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • ARM · Pass · RS vs QQQ +2.61% · RS vs SMH +3.11% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • TSLA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +3.12% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +2.76% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • META · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.49% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.08 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.04 < 0.15(EV门禁)
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade MU · LONG · Stock · ER +3.09%
Direction LONG Swing
Win Prob 72.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 969–975 Above 971.8 (VWAP) vwap
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $978.28 Dist +0.67% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +3.09%
Stop / Target $949.83 → $1001.82
R:R Reward/Risk 1.37 · Risk:Reward 1:0.73
P&L +$120.2 / -$87.76
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 72%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS vs QQQ +5.94% · RS vs SMH +6.44% · Volume 信号

#1:MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Highest Relative Strength 5.94 vs 3.12
  2. Largest Expected Range 5.32 vs 2.62
  3. Highest Probability 72.0 vs 72.0
  4. Best Risk Reward 1.37 vs 1.0

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +18.0
  • Volume +4.0
  • Total 72.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$120.2
失败 Loss -$87.76
每股价差 Reward $30.05 / Risk $21.94 Reward/Risk 1.37 · Risk:Reward 1:0.73

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% Position 38.9% 1 unit(s) Max Loss $87.76

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $971.77 Confidence 89 vwap
  • VWAP $971.77 70%
  • ORB High $968.28 30%
Stop $949.83 Confidence 77 orb_low
  • ORB Low $949.83 100%
Target $1001.82 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • Expected Close $1001.82 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • ARM (#2)
    • ER 3.1% vs 1.1%
    • Score 0.87 vs 0.42
    • RS +5.9% vs +2.6%
    • R:R 1.37 vs 0.79
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TSLA (#3)
    • Win% 72 vs 66
    • ER 3.1% vs 0.9%
    • Score 0.87 vs 0.31
    • RS +5.9% vs +3.1%
    • R:R 1.37 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TQQQ (#4)
    • Win% 72 vs 66
    • ER 3.1% vs 0.8%
    • Score 0.87 vs 0.26
    • RS +5.9% vs +2.8%
    • R:R 1.37 vs 0.99
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • META (#5)
    • Win% 72 vs 66
    • ER 3.1% vs 0.5%
    • Score 0.87 vs 0.17
    • RS +5.9% vs +1.5%
    • R:R 1.37 vs 0.63
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • QQQ (#6)
    • Win% 72 vs 59
    • ER 3.1% vs 0.1%
    • Score 0.87 vs 0.03
    • RS +5.9% vs +0.0%
    • R:R 1.37 vs 0.62
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.26 未达阈值
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、GDP、Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

Extended Gap on MU

  • Extended Gap on MU
  • Geopolitical Risk / GDP Whipsaw
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Buy First Green Candle
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

Expected Value

EV $+62 (win +$120 @ 72.0% · loss -$88)

「做多 MU:在 971.77 附近入场,目标 1001.82,预期 +3.09%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction TSLA · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $335.83–$342.34
Stop · Target $324.86 → $363.24 / T2 $375.44
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 TSLA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +6.4%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $324.86 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 TSLA:理想入场 $335.83–$342.34,止损 $324.86,目标 $363.24(约 +6.4%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-08-14-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Relative Strength

Why vs #2:MU RS +5.9% vs ARM +2.6%;ER 2.4% vs 1.1%;higher beta (5.2 vs 2.9);relative strength

final = win_prob(72%) × ER(2.4%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS vs QQQ +5.94%
  • RS vs SMH +6.44%
  • Volume 信号

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (-1.01%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 4.88% +5.89%
UUP -0.39% +0.62%
QQQ -1.01% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →