Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 29
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 76.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLE Avoid 65.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 70.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLK Avoid 71.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    Stock Market Today, Aug. 11: Markets Slip as Oil Prices Rise, Upwork Tumbles on

  2. Secondary Macro — Macro Surprise

    ism about its sustainability, noting that hyperscalers are increasingly relying on debt markets and questioning whether gpus' shorter lifespan makes them viable collateral compared to traditional assets like power plants. ai infrastructure financing gpu financing data center funding hyperscaler spending ai sustainability concerns compute financing platforms — Nvidia Just Recruited Wall Street to Help Fund $500 Billion in AI Infrastructure

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Macro Surprise + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Stock Market Today, Aug. 11: Markets Slip as Oil Prices Rise, Upwork Tumbles on
  • breaking Macro Surprise 88 ism about its sustainability, noting that hyperscalers are increasingly relying on debt markets and questioning whether gpus' shorter lifespan makes them viable collateral compared to traditional assets like power plants. ai infrastructure financing gpu financing data center funding hyperscaler spending ai sustainability concerns compute financing platforms — Nvidia Just Recruited Wall Street to Help Fund $500 Billion in AI Infrastructure
  • commodity Oil Selloff 74 XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 720.9 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 720.9 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 720.9 (昨日低点) and 720.9 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 MU
MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability
LONG Intraday 77.0% 1.13% Reward/Risk 0.41 Entry Zone 890–896 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$868.52 $902.98 RS vs QQQ +3.41% · RS vs SMH +1.44% · News 1 · Volume 信号 Geopolitical Risk · Macro Surprise Close below stop $868.52 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 AMD LONG Intraday 71.0% 0.32% Reward/Risk 0.30 Entry Zone 480–481 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$475.66 $482.35 RS vs QQQ +1.86% · News 1 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.01 < 0.15(EV门禁) Geopolitical Risk · Macro Surprise Close below stop $475.66 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 SMH LONG Intraday 66.0% 0.78% Reward/Risk 0.54 Entry Zone 581.00–581.54 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$572.93 $585.78 RS vs QQQ +1.97% · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.13 < 0.15(EV门禁) Geopolitical Risk · Macro Surprise Close below stop $572.93 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 ARM LONG Intraday 71.0% 0.76% Reward/Risk 0.59 Entry Zone 272.99–273.24 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$269.61 $275.2 RS vs QQQ +1.90% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.09 < 0.15(EV门禁) Geopolitical Risk · Macro Surprise Close below stop $269.61 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
5 META LONG Intraday 76.0% 0.43% Reward/Risk 0.68 Entry Zone 600.46–601.21 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$597.01 $603.45 RS vs QQQ +0.57% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 · Volume 信号 Geopolitical Risk · Macro Surprise Close below stop $597.01 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • XLE · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.49% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.05 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • TSLA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.51% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.66% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.11 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • XLK · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.44% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.00 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.04 < 0.15(EV门禁)
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE
Win Prob
Ideal Entry (frozen)
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target
R:R
P&L
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.05 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Macro Surprise、Oil Selloff

Today's Biggest Risk

Geopolitical Risk / Macro Surprise Whipsaw

  • Geopolitical Risk / Macro Surprise Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction GOOGL · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $345.65–$353.51
Stop · Target $367.16 → $319.4 / T2 $305.76
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 GOOGL · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -9.0%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $367.16 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 GOOGL:理想入场 $345.65–$353.51,止损 $367.16,目标 $319.4(约 +7.9%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-08-12-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (-0.62%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 6.36% +6.98%
UUP -0.25% +0.37%
QQQ -0.62% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →