Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 27
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 76.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 66.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 65.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLK Avoid 60.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    Iran Security Shake-up; China Attempts to Close AI Gap with US | The Pulse 8/10/

  2. Secondary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 4 oil headlines

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk (Iran) + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Iran Security Shake-up; China Attempts to Close AI Gap with US | The Pulse 8/10/
  • commodity Oil Selloff 76 XLE +0.0% · 4 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Trump Tariff Refunds Just Topped $100 Billion, and These Companies Are Receiving

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 714.6 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 714.6 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 714.6 (昨日低点) and 714.6 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 TQQQ
TQQQ ranked #1 because weakest RS + acceptable liquidity + best reward/risk
LONG Swing 66.0% 0.87% Reward/Risk 65.00 Entry Zone 74.76–74.76 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$74.75 $75.41 RS vs QQQ +2.49% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Oil Selloff Close below stop $74.75 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 TSLA LONG Swing 66.0% 0.69% Reward/Risk 0.21 Entry Zone 330.30–330.49 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$319.53 $332.68 RS vs QQQ +2.07% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Oil Selloff Close below stop $319.53 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 SMH LONG Swing 66.0% 0.49% Reward/Risk 2.05 Entry Zone 585–588 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$584.99 $589.29 RS vs QQQ +1.30% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.08 < 0.15(EV门禁) Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Oil Selloff Close below stop $584.99 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 NVDA LONG Swing 71.0% 0.27% Reward/Risk 0.11 Entry Zone 224.20–224.79 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$218.99 $225.11 RS vs QQQ +1.08% · News 8 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Oil Selloff Close below stop $218.99 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
5 META LONG Swing 76.0% 1.53% Reward/Risk 2.41 Entry Zone 595–599 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$593.0 $605.89 RS vs QQQ +0.90% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 · Volume 信号 Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Oil Selloff Close below stop $593.0 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • AVGO · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.80% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.07 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • XLK · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.19% · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.03 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • QQQ · Pass · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.13 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • AMZN · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.04 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • SPY · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -0.65% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 · Volume 信号
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE
Win Prob
Ideal Entry (frozen)
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target
R:R
P&L
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.29 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

Geopolitical Risk (Iran) / Oil Selloff Whipsaw

  • Geopolitical Risk (Iran) / Oil Selloff Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction NVDA · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $219.62–$224.20
Stop · Target $211.79 → $239.19 / T2 $247.02
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +11.6%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $211.79 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 NVDA:理想入场 $219.62–$224.20,止损 $211.79,目标 $239.19(约 +7.0%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-08-10-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (0.32%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 10.26% +9.94%
UUP 0.0% -0.32%
QQQ 0.32% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →