Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 21
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ ARM LONG ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability + best reward/risk 66.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ MU LONG 60.0% Trade
  • ★★☆☆☆ TQQQ Wait 66.0% Wait
  • ★★★☆☆ SMH LONG 66.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 49.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 49.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 unchanged vs Morning: ARM · ADVISORY

Morning: ARM LONG · TRIGGERED

ARM LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 257–258 · Live ER +6.55% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ ARM LONG ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability + best reward/risk 66.0% Trade
  • ★★☆☆☆ MU LONG 44.0% Trade
  • ★★☆☆☆ TQQQ Wait 54.0% Wait
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 39.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 42.0% Avoid

#1:ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability + best reward/risk

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    nuclear — The Energy IPO Boom Is Just Getting Started. Here Are the Companies to Watch.

  2. Secondary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 2 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — The Energy IPO Boom Is Just Getting Started. Here Are the Companies to Watch.
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — STARTRADER expands AI offering with 31 New US Share & ETF CFDs in Semiconductors
  • commodity Oil Selloff 72 XLE +0.0% · 2 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 661.7 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 661.7 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 661.7 (昨日低点) and 661.7 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability + best reward/risk
LONG Swing 66.0% 7.3% Reward/Risk 1.81 Entry Zone 255–257 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$245.75 $274.81 RS vs QQQ +2.50% · 昨日强势 +14.7% 今日 gap 可控 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $245.75 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 MU LONG Swing 60.0% 7.02% Reward/Risk 1.91 Entry Zone 905–911 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$874.66 $971.78 RS vs QQQ +0.23% · 昨日强势 +23.6% 今日 gap 可控 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $874.66 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 TQQQ LONG Swing 66.0% 2.74% Reward/Risk 1.86 Entry Zone 65.51–65.91 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$64.74 $67.51 RS vs QQQ +9.08% · Volume 信号 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $64.74 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 SMH LONG Swing 66.0% 1.75% Reward/Risk 0.60 Entry Zone 554–557 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$538.9 $564.93 RS vs QQQ +5.45% · Volume 信号 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $538.9 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • AVGO · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -3.26% · 昨日强势 +6.0% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • AMD · Pass · News 1 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • TSLA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.36% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • QQQ · Pass · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • SPY · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -2.41% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
Bias Bull ★★★★★
Best Trade ARM · LONG · Stock · ER +7.30%
Direction LONG Swing
Win Prob 66.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 255–257 Above 256.1 (VWAP) vwap
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $258.45 Dist +0.91% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +7.30%
Stop / Target $245.75 → $274.81
R:R Reward/Risk 1.81 · Risk:Reward 1:0.55
P&L +$168.3 / -$93.24
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 66%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS vs QQQ +2.50% · 昨日强势 +14.7% 今日 gap 可控

#1:ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability + best reward/risk

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Largest Expected Range 12.66 vs 12.18
  2. Highest Probability 66.0 vs 66.0
  3. Best Risk Reward 1.8 vs 1.0

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +6.0
  • Trend +10.0
  • Total 66.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$168.3
失败 Loss -$93.24
每股价差 Reward $18.7 / Risk $10.36 Reward/Risk 1.81 · Risk:Reward 1:0.55

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% Position 23.0% 1 unit(s) Max Loss $93.24

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $256.11 Confidence 77 vwap
  • VWAP $256.11 100%
Stop $245.75 Confidence 77 orb_low
  • ORB Low $245.75 100%
Target $274.81 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • Expected Close $274.81 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • MU (#2)
    • Win% 66 vs 60
    • ER 7.3% vs 6.1%
    • Score 2.09 vs 1.83
    • RS +2.5% vs +0.2%
    • R:R 1.8 vs 1.0
  • TQQQ (#3)
    • ER 7.3% vs 2.9%
    • Score 2.09 vs 0.96
    • RS +2.5% vs +9.1%
    • R:R 1.8 vs 0.84
  • SMH (#4)
    • ER 7.3% vs 1.9%
    • Score 2.09 vs 0.63
    • RS +2.5% vs +5.5%
    • R:R 1.8 vs 0.68
  • AVGO (#5)
    • Win% 66 vs 49
    • ER 7.3% vs 0.9%
    • Score 2.09 vs 0.21
    • RS +2.5% vs -3.3%
    • R:R 1.8 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • AMD (#6)
    • Win% 66 vs 49
    • ER 7.3% vs 0.7%
    • Score 2.09 vs 0.17
    • RS +2.5% vs -0.1%
    • R:R 1.8 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk、Oil Selloff

Today's Biggest Risk

High Gap (+4.6%)

  • High Gap (+4.6%)
  • Geopolitical Risk / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw
  • Don't Chase
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

Expected Value

EV $+79 (win +$168 @ 66.0% · loss -$93)

「做多 ARM:在 256.11 附近入场,目标 274.81,预期 +7.30%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction META · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $543.81–$557.62
Stop · Target $581.98 → $496.72 / T2 $472.36
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -11.1%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $581.98 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 META:理想入场 $543.81–$557.62,止损 $581.98,目标 $496.72(约 +8.9%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-07-31-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Sector Edge

Why vs #2:ARM RS +2.5% vs MU +0.2%;ER 6.3% vs 6.1%;Win% 66 vs 60;higher beta (1.6 vs 1.1);relative strength

final = win_prob(66%) × ER(6.3%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS vs QQQ +2.50%
  • 昨日强势 +14.7% 今日 gap 可控

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (8.34%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 9.34% +1.00%
UUP
QQQ 8.34% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →