Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 19
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 82.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 73.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SPY Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 73.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 73.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 70.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 73.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SPY Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 65.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 59.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    Ukraine Hits Two Key Russian Oil Refineries After Short Lull

  2. Secondary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Ukraine Hits Two Key Russian Oil Refineries After Short Lull
  • commodity Oil Selloff 74 XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 682.1 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth
  • IF SMH reclaims strength + QQQ > 682.1 (昨日高点) THEN SHORT-cover / tactical LONG

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 682.1 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH
  • IF SMH continues lower + QQQ < 682.1 (昨日低点) THEN avoid dip-buy; SHORT semis

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 682.1 (昨日低点) and 682.1 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility
  • IF chip selloff continues without QQQ breakdown THEN WAIT

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 NVDA
NVDA ranked #1 because highest probability + best catalyst alignment
LONG Intraday 82.0% 0.93% Reward/Risk 0.60 Entry Zone 197.01–197.13 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$194.04 $198.9 RS vs QQQ +1.16% · RS vs SMH +4.12% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 4 Geopolitical Risk · Oil Selloff Close below stop $194.04 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 AVGO LONG Intraday 73.0% 1.4% Reward/Risk 0.77 Entry Zone 380.91–381.03 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$374.0 $386.32 RS vs QQQ +1.08% · RS vs SMH +4.04% · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0% Geopolitical Risk · Oil Selloff Close below stop $374.0 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 META LONG Intraday 71.0% 0.43% Reward/Risk 0.86 Entry Zone 595–598 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$593.41 $598.98 RS vs QQQ +1.02% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% Geopolitical Risk · Oil Selloff Close below stop $593.41 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 SPY LONG Intraday 71.0% 0.42% Reward/Risk 0.66 Entry Zone 742–743 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$738.2 $746.02 RS vs QQQ +1.10% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% Geopolitical Risk · Oil Selloff Close below stop $738.2 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
5 MU LONG Intraday 73.0% 1.96% Reward/Risk 0.25 Entry Zone 819.92–820.53 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$755.15 $836.29 RS vs QQQ +1.57% · RS vs SMH +4.53% · News 2 · 上行空间 <1.0% Geopolitical Risk · Oil Selloff Close below stop $755.15 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • AMD · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.17% · RS vs SMH +4.13% · News 1 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • TSLA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.50% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • ARM · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.71% · RS vs SMH +3.67% · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -1.42% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
Bias Neutral ★★★☆☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE
Win Prob
Ideal Entry (frozen)
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target
R:R
P&L
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • SPY Pass Score 0.09 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -0.66%
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

Low Breadth

  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk / Oil Selloff Whipsaw
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction AMD · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $456.93–$477.52
Stop · Target $515.93 → $381.49 / T2 $366.23
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 AMD · Prior day -7.6% · 5D momentum -16.5%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $515.93 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 AMD:理想入场 $456.93–$477.52,止损 $515.93,目标 $381.49(约 +16.8%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-07-29-001 · AI Chip Selloff dominates today despite macro tailwinds?

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (5.1%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 9.7% +4.60%
UUP
QQQ 5.1% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →