Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 18
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ AMD SHORT AMD ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range 60.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ MU SHORT 65.0% Trade
  • ★★☆☆☆ NVDA SHORT 47.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 48.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 55.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 48.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 unchanged vs Morning: AMD · ADVISORY

Morning: AMD SHORT · TRIGGERED

AMD SHORT · Ideal Entry Zone 458–461 · Live ER +7.42% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ AMD SHORT AMD ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 78.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ ARM SHORT 73.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ MU SHORT 65.0% Trade
  • ★★☆☆☆ SMH SHORT 48.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 48.0% Avoid
  • ★★☆☆☆ NVDA SHORT 43.0% Trade

#1:AMD ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    Alstom S.A.: Alstom and its partners reach financial close for Israel’s Haifa-Na

  2. Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    Jerome Powell's Inflation Warning Rings Truer Than Ever After President Donald T

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 5 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Alstom S.A.: Alstom and its partners reach financial close for Israel’s Haifa-Na
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Alstom S.A. : Alstom et ses partenaires finalisent le financement du projet de t
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — NextEra Energy Is Becoming the Utility Sector's Biggest AI Power Bet -- Here Are
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Jerome Powell's Inflation Warning Rings Truer Than Ever After President Donald T
  • commodity Oil Selloff 78 XLE +0.0% · 5 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Jerome Powell's Inflation Warning Rings Truer Than Ever After President Donald T

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:No Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 684.2 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth
  • IF SMH reclaims strength + QQQ > 684.2 (昨日高点) THEN SHORT-cover / tactical LONG

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 684.2 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH
  • IF SMH continues lower + QQQ < 684.2 (昨日低点) THEN avoid dip-buy; SHORT semis

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 684.2 (昨日低点) and 684.2 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility
  • IF chip selloff continues without QQQ breakdown THEN WAIT

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 AMD
AMD ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range
SHORT Swing 60.0% 5.0% Reward/Risk 1.25 Entry Zone 474–477 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$494.95 $452.14 RS弱于QQQ -3.16% · 半导体内领涨 +0.92% · 昨日弱势 -9.2% 延续下行 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $494.95 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 MU SHORT Swing 65.0% 3.43% Reward/Risk 0.59 Entry Zone 848–854 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$900.2 $821.84 RS弱于QQQ -5.59% · RS弱于SMH -1.51% · News 3 (利空做空) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $900.2 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 NVDA SHORT Swing 47.0% 1.37% Reward/Risk 3.31 Entry Zone 195–196 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$196.51 $193.02 RS弱于QQQ -4.28% · News 5 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind NVDA short vs escalation Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $196.51 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • SMH · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -4.08% · Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation
  • ARM · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -3.31% · 半导体内领涨 +0.77% · 昨日弱势 -2.1% 延续下行 · News 2 (利空做空)
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -2.26% · Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • TSLA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.55% · News 2 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
Bias Strong Bear ★☆☆☆☆
Best Trade AMD · SHORT · Stock · ER +5.00%
Direction SHORT Swing
Win Prob 60.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 474–477 Below 475.9 (VWAP) vwap
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $473.82 Dist +0.44% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +5.00%
Stop / Target $494.95 → $452.14
R:R Reward/Risk 1.25 · Risk:Reward 1:0.80
P&L +$118.95 / -$95.1
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 60%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS弱于QQQ -3.16% · 半导体内领涨 +0.92% · 昨日弱势 -9.2% 延续下行

#1:AMD ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Highest Relative Strength -3.16 vs 1.52
  2. Largest Expected Range 9.16 vs 4.3

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +2.0
  • Trend +8.0
  • Total 60.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$118.95
失败 Loss -$95.1
每股价差 Reward $23.79 / Risk $19.02 Reward/Risk 1.25 · Risk:Reward 1:0.80

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% Position 23.8% 1 unit(s) Max Loss $95.1

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $475.93 Confidence 89 vwap
  • VWAP $475.93 70%
  • Below Current $473.82 30%
Stop $494.95 Confidence 77 orb_high
  • ORB High $494.95 100%
Target $452.14 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • Expected Close $452.14 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • MU (#2)
    • Win% 60 vs 65
    • ER 5.0% vs 2.1%
    • Score 1.37 vs 0.7
    • RS -3.2% vs -5.6%
    • R:R 1.25 vs 1.0
  • NVDA (#3)
    • Win% 60 vs 47
    • ER 5.0% vs 1.4%
    • Score 1.37 vs 0.32
    • RS -3.2% vs -4.3%
    • R:R 1.25 vs 1.0
  • SMH (#4)
    • Win% 60 vs 48
    • ER 5.0% vs 1.2%
    • Score 1.37 vs 0.28
    • RS -3.2% vs -4.1%
    • R:R 1.25 vs 0.38
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • ARM (#5)
    • Win% 60 vs 55
    • ER 5.0% vs 0.9%
    • Score 1.37 vs 0.25
    • RS -3.2% vs -3.3%
    • R:R 1.25 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TQQQ (#6)
    • Win% 60 vs 48
    • ER 5.0% vs 0.8%
    • Score 1.37 vs 0.18
    • RS -3.2% vs -2.3%
    • R:R 1.25 vs 0.32
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.18 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -1.11%
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -5

Today's Biggest Risk

Low Breadth

  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

Expected Value

EV $+33 (win +$119 @ 60.0% · loss -$95)

「做空 AMD:在 475.93 附近入场,目标 452.14,预期 +5.00%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction AMD · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $473.82–$493.45
Stop · Target $529.87 → $402.4 / T2 $386.3
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 AMD · Prior day -9.2% · 5D momentum -1.7%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $529.87 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 AMD:理想入场 $473.82–$493.45,止损 $529.87,目标 $402.4(约 +15.3%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-07-28-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Relative Weakness

Why vs #2:AMD RS -3.2% vs MU -5.6%;ER 4.6% vs 2.1%;relative weakness play

final = win_prob(60%) × ER(4.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS弱于QQQ -3.16%
  • 半导体内领涨 +0.92%
  • 昨日弱势 -9.2% 延续下行

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (4.77%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 7.38% +2.61%
UUP
QQQ 4.77% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →