Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 17
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SPY Avoid 75.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 69.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SPY Avoid 75.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 80.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 63.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 55.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    Is It Really Safe to Invest in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF Right Now? Here's What H

  2. Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    US Stocks Catch a Bid as Oil Tumbles With Iran Conflict Pause

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk (Iran) + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Is It Really Safe to Invest in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF Right Now? Here's What H
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 US Stocks Catch a Bid as Oil Tumbles With Iran Conflict Pause
  • commodity Oil Selloff 74 XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 692.0 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 692.0 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 692.0 (昨日低点) and 692.0 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 AMD
AMD ranked #1 because highest probability + best reward/risk
LONG Intraday 77.0% 1.11% Reward/Risk 17.32 Entry Zone 532.69–533.38 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$532.69 $538.92 RS vs QQQ +1.94% · RS vs SMH +3.62% · News 1 · VIX 回落 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $532.69 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 AVGO LONG Intraday 77.0% 0.23% Reward/Risk 0.14 Entry Zone 392–393 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$386.27 $393.76 RS vs QQQ +1.95% · RS vs SMH +3.63% · Gap 未过度延伸 · VIX 回落 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $386.27 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 ARM LONG Intraday 72.0% 0.82% Reward/Risk 2.43 Entry Zone 266–268 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$265.95 $269.04 RS vs QQQ +2.38% · RS vs SMH +4.06% · VIX 回落 · 上行空间 <1.0% Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $265.95 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 MU LONG Intraday 77.0% 0.92% Reward/Risk 0.85 Entry Zone 940–941 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$930.19 $948.98 RS vs QQQ +1.77% · RS vs SMH +3.45% · News 1 · VIX 回落 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $930.19 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
5 SPY LONG Intraday 75.0% 0.53% Reward/Risk 3.97 Entry Zone 744–746 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$744.07 $749.04 RS vs QQQ +0.72% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $744.07 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.23% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落
  • NVDA · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -0.51% · RS vs SMH +1.17% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 8
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • META · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落
  • TSLA · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -1.55% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落
Bias Neutral ★★★☆☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE
Win Prob
Ideal Entry (frozen)
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target
R:R
P&L
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • SPY Pass Score 0.08 未达阈值
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Oil Selloff

Today's Biggest Risk

Low Breadth

  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk / Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Whipsaw
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction META · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $604.71–$619.94
Stop · Target $646.77 → $552.85 / T2 $526.02
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -7.9%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $646.77 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 META:理想入场 $604.71–$619.94,止损 $646.77,目标 $552.85(约 +8.8%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-07-27-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (3.61%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 8.0% +4.39%
UUP
QQQ 3.61% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →