Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 15
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ TSLA SHORT TSLA ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 72.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 65.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 61.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SPY Avoid 48.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 unchanged vs Morning: TSLA (Ideal Entry still MISSED — see alt stub) · ADVISORY

Morning: TSLA SHORT · MISSED

TSLA SHORT · Ideal Entry Zone 334–336 · Live ER +2.82% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ TSLA SHORT TSLA ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 72.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ ARM SHORT 65.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 65.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SPY Avoid 48.0% Avoid

#1:TSLA ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    Gold Falls as Middle East Conflict Curbs Dip-Buying Momentum

  2. Secondary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 4 oil headlines

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Gold Falls as Middle East Conflict Curbs Dip-Buying Momentum
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — Why Constellation Energy Stock Blasted Higher on Wednesday
  • commodity Oil Selloff 76 XLE +0.0% · 4 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 709.0 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 709.0 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 709.0 (昨日低点) and 709.0 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 TSLA
TSLA ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability
SHORT Intraday 72.0% 3.29% Reward/Risk 0.54 Entry Zone 352.24–352.60 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$374.01 $340.82 RS弱于QQQ -7.15% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $374.01 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • META · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -3.54% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -2.35% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • ARM · Pass · 板块内相对强势 +0.66% · 昨日弱势 -2.7% 延续下行 · Gap 未过度延伸 · VIX 走高
  • SPY · Pass · 板块内相对强势 +0.58% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号
Bias Neutral ★★★☆☆
Best Trade TSLA · SHORT · Stock · ER +3.29%
Direction SHORT Intraday
Win Prob 72.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 352.24–352.60 Below 352.2 (VWAP) vwap
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $347.39 Dist +1.43% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +3.29%
Stop / Target $374.01 → $340.82
R:R Reward/Risk 0.54 · Risk:Reward 1:1.85
P&L +$46.4 / -$86.36
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 72%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS弱于QQQ -7.15% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高

#1:TSLA ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Highest Relative Strength -7.15 vs 3.1
  2. Largest Expected Range 9.55 vs 3.26
  3. Highest Probability 72.0 vs 72.0

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +12.0
  • Volume +4.0
  • Macro +6.0
  • Total 72.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$46.4
失败 Loss -$86.36
每股价差 Reward $11.6 / Risk $21.59 Reward/Risk 0.54 · Risk:Reward 1:1.85

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% Position 14.1% 1 unit(s) Max Loss $86.36

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $352.42 Confidence 89 vwap
  • ORB Low $352.6 30%
  • VWAP $352.24 70%
Stop $374.01 Confidence 77 orb_high
  • ORB High $374.01 100%
Target $340.82 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • Expected Close $340.82 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • META (#2)
    • ER 3.3% vs 1.0%
    • Score 0.68 vs 0.37
    • RS -7.2% vs -3.5%
    • R:R 0.54 vs 0.46
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TQQQ (#3)
    • Win% 72 vs 54
    • ER 3.3% vs 0.7%
    • Score 0.68 vs 0.2
    • RS -7.2% vs -2.4%
    • R:R 0.54 vs 0.39
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • QQQ (#4)
    • Win% 72 vs 65
    • ER 3.3% vs 0.1%
    • Score 0.68 vs 0.03
    • RS -7.2% vs +0.0%
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • ARM (#5)
    • Win% 72 vs 61
    • ER 3.3% vs 0.0%
    • Score 0.68 vs 0.0
    • RS -7.2% vs +0.7%
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • SPY (#6)
    • Win% 72 vs 48
    • ER 3.3% vs -0.1%
    • Score 0.68 vs 0.0
    • RS -7.2% vs +0.6%
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.2 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -1.17%
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk、Oil Selloff
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -1

Today's Biggest Risk

Extended Gap on TSLA

  • Extended Gap on TSLA
  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw
  • VIX Spike
  • Don't Buy First Green Candle
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release
  • Don't Fight Volatility

Expected Value

EV $+9 (win +$46 @ 72.0% · loss -$86)

「做空 TSLA:在 352.42 附近入场,目标 340.82,预期 +3.29%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction META · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $613.49–$629.06
Stop · Target $656.53 → $560.4 / T2 $532.94
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -8.0%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $656.53 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 META:理想入场 $613.49–$629.06,止损 $656.53,目标 $560.4(约 +8.9%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-07-23-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Stock Edge

Why vs #2:TSLA RS -7.2% vs META -3.5%;ER 1.9% vs 1.0%;higher beta (7.1 vs 4.0);relative weakness play

final = win_prob(72%) × ER(1.9%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS弱于QQQ -7.15%
  • Volume 信号
  • VIX 走高

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (1.12%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 9.62% +8.50%
UUP
QQQ 1.12% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →