Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 14

9/9 Steps

流程 Case 核对 Learning 起始日 2026-07-02（Day 1）

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET（早盘决策）完整 Morning →

Today's Opportunities

先给机会，再给分析 — 无需翻页

★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid
★★☆☆☆ MU LONG MU ranked #1 because weakest RS 49.0% Trade
★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 49.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 44.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 changed vs Morning: MU LONG → AMD LONG · ADVISORY

Primary changed vs Morning Ideal

Morning: MU LONG · READY

↻ AMD LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 541–544 · Live ER +3.40% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会，再给分析 — 无需翻页

★★☆☆☆ AMD LONG AMD ranked #1 because best reward/risk 59.0% Trade
★★☆☆☆ MU LONG 49.0% Trade
★★☆☆☆ ARM LONG 44.0% Trade
★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid

#1：MU ranked #1 because weakest RS

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk
Stock Market Today, July 21: Micron Surges 12% as Semiconductor Strength Lifts N
Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)
Kuwait Bond Sale Bids Top $9 Billion Even as Iran Strikes
Tertiary Macro — Macro Surprise
ism about ai spending payoffs, noting they won't materialize as expected. the s&p 500's shiller cape ratio has reached levels last seen during the dot-com bubble, historically preceding market declines. however, the article notes that while pullbacks are inevitable, long-term investors who focus on quality companies and valuations can still achieve significant gains. market valuation ai spending economic risks stock market decline shiller cape ratio long-term investing geopolitical tensions — Jamie Dimon's Latest Warning Sends Shockwaves Through Wall Street. History Is Ve

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk (Iran) + Macro Surprise

breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Stock Market Today, July 21: Micron Surges 12% as Semiconductor Strength Lifts N
breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Kuwait Bond Sale Bids Top $9 Billion Even as Iran Strikes
breaking Macro Surprise 88 ism about ai spending payoffs, noting they won't materialize as expected. the s&p 500's shiller cape ratio has reached levels last seen during the dot-com bubble, historically preceding market declines. however, the article notes that while pullbacks are inevitable, long-term investors who focus on quality companies and valuations can still achieve significant gains. market valuation ai spending economic risks stock market decline shiller cape ratio long-term investing geopolitical tensions — Jamie Dimon's Latest Warning Sends Shockwaves Through Wall Street. History Is Ve
breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat
breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Stock Market Today, July 21: Micron Surges 12% as Semiconductor Strength Lifts N

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate：Wait

Conditions to go LONG

IF QQQ > 696.1 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call（突破昨高）
IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce

Conditions to go SHORT

IF QQQ < 696.1 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put（破位昨低）
IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
IF QQQ between 696.1 (昨日低点) and 696.1 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range

Top 5 Trade Candidates

#	Ticker	Dir	Hz	Win%	ER%	R:R	Ideal Entry	Alt Entry	Status	Stop	Target	Why Today	Catalyst	Invalidation
1	MU MU ranked #1 because weakest RS	LONG	Intraday	49.0%	1.26%	Reward/Risk 0.81	Entry Zone 934–937	—	EXPIRED Abandon today	$921.19	$947.44	RS 弱于 QQQ -4.72% · 昨日强势 +8.0% 今日 gap 可控 · News 1	Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran)	Close below stop $921.19 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.80% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
SMH · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.19% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
AMD · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -3.28% · 昨日强势 +5.6% 今日 gap 可控 · News 1 · 上行空间 <1.0%
TSLA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.94% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
ARM · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -4.06% · 昨日强势 +4.3% 今日 gap 可控 · 上行空间 <1.0%

Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆

Best Trade MU · LONG · Stock · ER +1.26%

Direction LONG Intraday

Win Prob 49.0% (rules)

Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 934–937 Above 934.3 (现价) current

Entry Status EXPIRED Current $934.31 Dist -0.14% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +1.26%

Stop / Target $921.19 → $947.44

R:R Reward/Risk 0.81 · Risk:Reward 1:1.23

P&L +$70.68 / -$86.82

More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk

Confidence 49%

Index Trade NO TRADE

Why RS 弱于 QQQ -4.72% · 昨日强势 +8.0% 今日 gap 可控 · News 1

#1：MU ranked #1 because weakest RS

Why This Trade Wins Today

Highest Relative Strength -4.72 vs 1.8

Win Probability 拆解

Base +50.0
RS -16.0
Trend +10.0
Catalyst +5.0
Total 49.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000

成功 Win +$70.68

失败 Loss -$86.82

每股价差 Reward $11.78 / Risk $14.47 Reward/Risk 0.81 · Risk:Reward 1:1.23

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% ↓ Position 56.1% ↓ 1 unit(s) ↓ Max Loss $86.82

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $935.66 Confidence 55 current

Stop $921.19 Confidence 55 expected_low

Target $947.44 Confidence 77 expected_close

✓ Expected Close $947.44 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

TQQQ (#1)
- Win% 49 vs 66
- ER 1.3% vs 0.6%
- Score 0.34 vs 0.57
- RS -4.7% vs +1.8%
- Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
SMH (#2)
- Win% 49 vs 66
- ER 1.3% vs 0.6%
- Score 0.34 vs 0.52
- RS -4.7% vs +1.2%
- Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
AMD (#4)
- ER 1.3% vs 0.9%
- Score 0.34 vs 0.23
- RS -4.7% vs -3.3%
- Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
TSLA (#5)
- Win% 49 vs 66
- ER 1.3% vs 0.3%
- Score 0.34 vs 0.11
- RS -4.7% vs +0.9%
- R:R 0.81 vs 0.77
- Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
ARM (#6)
- Win% 49 vs 44
- ER 1.3% vs 0.2%
- Score 0.34 vs 0.04
- RS -4.7% vs -4.1%
- Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口：No Trade
TQQQ Pass Score 0.57 未达阈值
Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Macro Surprise