Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 13
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★★☆ ARM LONG ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability + best reward/risk 82.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ AMD LONG 76.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ AVGO LONG 70.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ MU LONG 72.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 70.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 70.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 changed vs Morning: ARM LONG → AMD LONG · ADVISORY

Primary changed vs Morning Ideal

Morning: ARM LONG · ACTIVE

↻ AMD LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 534–537 · Live ER +3.63% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★★☆ AMD LONG AMD ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability 82.0% Trade
  • ★★★★☆ ARM LONG 82.0% Trade
  • ★★☆☆☆ MU LONG 52.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 70.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 70.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 63.0% Avoid

#1:ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability + best reward/risk

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  2. Secondary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 2 oil headlines

  3. Tertiary Momentum — AI Momentum

    SMH +3.8% leading

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Oil Selloff

  • commodity Oil Selloff 72 XLE +0.0% · 2 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 695.3 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 695.3 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF QQQ between 695.3 (昨日低点) and 695.3 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability + best reward/risk
LONG Intraday 82.0% 3.26% Reward/Risk 1.26 Entry Zone 282.61–282.84 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$275.42 $291.94 RS vs QQQ +3.38% · RS vs SMH +1.02% · 昨日强势 +5.7% 今日 gap 可控 · VIX 回落 Oil Selloff · Trade Policy Close below stop $275.42
2 AMD LONG Intraday 76.0% 3.04% Reward/Risk 1.61 Entry Zone 524–526 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$515.25 $541.06 RS vs QQQ +2.68% · 昨日强势 +5.8% 今日 gap 可控 · VIX 回落 Oil Selloff · Trade Policy Close below stop $515.25
3 AVGO LONG Intraday 70.0% 2.85% Reward/Risk 1.21 Entry Zone 387.10–387.56 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$378.16 $398.38 RS vs QQQ +1.49% · 昨日强势 +5.0% 今日 gap 可控 · VIX 回落 Oil Selloff · Trade Policy Close below stop $378.16
4 MU LONG Intraday 72.0% 1.87% Reward/Risk 0.32 Entry Zone 918–921 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$865.46 $936.81 RS vs QQQ +4.66% · RS vs SMH +2.30% · VIX 回落 Oil Selloff · Trade Policy Close below stop $865.46

Watchlist

  • TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +2.59% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • SMH · Pass · RS vs QQQ +2.36% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • NVDA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.20% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 2 · Volume 信号
  • SPY · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -1.12% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade ARM · LONG · Stock · ER +3.26%
Direction LONG Intraday
Win Prob 82.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 282.61–282.84 Above 282.8 (VWAP) vwap
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $282.45 Dist -0.10% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +3.26%
Stop / Target $275.42 → $291.94
R:R Reward/Risk 1.26 · Risk:Reward 1:0.79
P&L +$119.73 / -$95.03
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Trade Policy
Confidence 82%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS vs QQQ +3.38% · RS vs SMH +1.02% · 昨日强势 +5.7% 今日 gap 可控

#1:ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability + best reward/risk

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Largest Expected Range 6.72 vs 6.52
  2. Highest Probability 82.0 vs 76.0
  3. Best Risk Reward 1.26 vs 1.0

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +18.0
  • Trend +10.0
  • Macro +4.0
  • Total 82.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$119.73
失败 Loss -$95.03
每股价差 Reward $9.21 / Risk $7.31 Reward/Risk 1.26 · Risk:Reward 1:0.79

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% Position 36.8% 1 unit(s) Max Loss $95.03

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $282.73 Confidence 89 vwap
  • VWAP $282.84 70%
  • ORB High $282.61 30%
Stop $275.42 Confidence 77 orb_low
  • ORB Low $275.42 100%
Target $291.94 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • Expected Close $291.94 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • AMD (#2)
    • Win% 82 vs 76
    • Score 1.38 vs 1.24
    • RS +3.4% vs +2.7%
    • R:R 1.26 vs 1.0
  • AVGO (#3)
    • Win% 82 vs 70
    • ER 3.3% vs 2.4%
    • Score 1.38 vs 0.84
    • RS +3.4% vs +1.5%
    • R:R 1.26 vs 1.0
  • MU (#4)
    • Win% 82 vs 72
    • ER 3.3% vs 2.1%
    • Score 1.38 vs 0.75
    • RS +3.4% vs +4.7%
    • R:R 1.26 vs 1.0
  • TQQQ (#5)
    • Win% 82 vs 70
    • ER 3.3% vs 0.8%
    • Score 1.38 vs 0.28
    • RS +3.4% vs +2.6%
    • R:R 1.26 vs 0.22
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • SMH (#6)
    • Win% 82 vs 70
    • ER 3.3% vs 0.7%
    • Score 1.38 vs 0.25
    • RS +3.4% vs +2.4%
    • R:R 1.26 vs 0.22
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.28 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Oil Selloff、Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

Oil Selloff / Trade Policy Whipsaw

  • Oil Selloff / Trade Policy Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

Expected Value

EV $+81 (win +$120 @ 82.0% · loss -$95)

「做多 ARM:在 282.73 附近入场,目标 291.94,预期 +3.26%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction AMD · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $502.80–$524.00
Stop · Target $463.55 → $600.94 / T2 $624.98
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 AMD · Prior day +5.8% · 5D momentum -5.8%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $463.55 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 AMD:理想入场 $502.80–$524.00,止损 $463.55,目标 $600.94(约 +15.0%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-07-21-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Oil Selloff 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Sector Edge

Why vs #2:ARM RS +3.4% vs AMD +2.7%;ER 3.4% vs 3.3%;Win% 82 vs 76;higher beta (3.5 vs 2.9);relative strength

final = win_prob(82%) × ER(3.4%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS vs QQQ +3.38%
  • RS vs SMH +1.02%
  • 昨日强势 +5.7% 今日 gap 可控
  • VIX 回落

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (3.03%)

Driver「Political — Trade Policy」→ SMH, NVDA, SPY

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
SMH 2.04% -0.99%
NVDA 8.37% +5.34%
SPY 3.29% +0.26%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →