Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 10

9/9 Steps

流程 Case 核对 Learning 起始日 2026-07-02（Day 1）

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET（早盘决策）完整 Morning →

Today's Opportunities

先给机会，再给分析 — 无需翻页

★★★☆☆ META LONG META ranked #1 as top trade candidate today 69.0% Trade
★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 77.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ SPY Avoid 65.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 65.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 59.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 59.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Morning: META LONG · READY

META LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 682–686 · Live ER +1.31% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会，再给分析 — 无需翻页

★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 59.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 77.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ SPY Avoid 65.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 59.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 54.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 49.0% Avoid

#1：META ranked #1 as top trade candidate today

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

Primary Fed — Fed Headlines
rate hike — Stocks Rise as Inflation Cools the Fed, but Chip Rout Keeps the Rally Honest
Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk
Stocks Rise as Inflation Cools the Fed, but Chip Rout Keeps the Rally Honest
Tertiary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)
Gold Declines as Fresh US Strikes on Iran Fuel Inflation Fears

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Fed Headlines + Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk

breaking Fed Headlines 88 rate hike — Stocks Rise as Inflation Cools the Fed, but Chip Rout Keeps the Rally Honest
breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Stocks Rise as Inflation Cools the Fed, but Chip Rout Keeps the Rally Honest
breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Middle East Bond Spreads Hit 2022 High as Ceasefire Breaks Down
breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Gold Declines as Fresh US Strikes on Iran Fuel Inflation Fears
breaking Macro Surprise 88 ism about its ai strategy and ecosystem strength. however, skeptics question whether the market has priced in an unproven ai monetization thesis while ignoring near-term cost pressures from rising nand and dram prices that have already forced price increases on macs and ipads. keybanc downgraded apple to underweight, warning that iphone pricing increases could dampen demand and that the company lacks clear evidence its ai initiatives will drive growth or margin expansion. apple ai strategy earnings report valuation concerns pricing power cost pressures iphone demand semiconductor costs toll booth thesis — Apple: Can Stock’s AI Story Justify Its Rally Before Earnings
commodity Oil Selloff 72 XLE +0.0% · 2 oil headlines
breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate：Wait

Conditions to go LONG

IF QQQ > 724.4 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call（突破昨高）
IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

IF QQQ < 711.1 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put（破位昨低）
IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
IF QQQ between 711.1 (昨日低点) and 724.4 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

#	Ticker	Dir	Hz	Win%	ER%	R:R	Ideal Entry	Alt Entry	Status	Stop	Target	Why Today	Catalyst	Invalidation
1	META META ranked #1 as top trade candidate today	LONG	Intraday	69.0%	1.12%	Reward/Risk 1.42	Entry Zone 682–686	—	EXPIRED Abandon today	$678.85	$691.85	昨日强势 +3.2% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号	Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk	Close below stop $678.85 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

NVDA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.20% · RS vs SMH +1.46% · News 8 · Volume 信号
SPY · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.28% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
TSLA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.15% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
TQQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%

Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆

Best Trade META · LONG · Stock · ER +1.12%

Direction LONG Intraday

Win Prob 69.0% (rules)

Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 682–686 Above 684.1 (VWAP) vwap

Entry Status EXPIRED Current $682.90 Dist -0.19% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +1.12%

Stop / Target $678.85 → $691.85

R:R Reward/Risk 1.42 · Risk:Reward 1:0.70

P&L +$137.34 / -$96.66

More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Fed — Fed Headlines

Confidence 69%

Index Trade NO TRADE

Why 昨日强势 +3.2% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号

#1：META ranked #1 as top trade candidate today

Win Probability 拆解

Base +50.0
Trend +10.0
Gap +5.0
Volume +4.0
Total 69.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000

成功 Win +$137.34

失败 Loss -$96.66

每股价差 Reward $7.63 / Risk $5.37 Reward/Risk 1.42 · Risk:Reward 1:0.70

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% ↓ Position 100.0% ↓ 1 unit(s) ↓ Max Loss $96.66

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $684.22 Confidence 98 vwap

✓ VWAP $684.07 44%
✓ ORB High $683.0 19%
✓ Yesterday High $686.08 19%
✓ Prior Close $682.36 19%

Stop $678.85 Confidence 77 orb_low

✓ ORB Low $678.85 100%

Target $691.85 Confidence 77 expected_close

✓ Expected Close $691.85 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

NVDA (#2)
- Win% 69 vs 77
- ER 1.1% vs 0.4%
- Score 0.45 vs 0.32
- RS +0.1% vs +1.2%
- Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
SPY (#3)
- Win% 69 vs 65
- ER 1.1% vs 0.1%
- Score 0.45 vs 0.03
- RS +0.1% vs +0.3%
- R:R 1.43 vs 0.62
- Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
TSLA (#4)
- Win% 69 vs 65
- ER 1.1% vs 0.0%
- Score 0.45 vs 0.0
- R:R 1.43 vs 0.62
- Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
QQQ (#5)
- Win% 69 vs 59
- ER 1.1% vs -0.0%
- Score 0.45 vs 0.0
- RS +0.1% vs +0.0%
- R:R 1.43 vs 1.07
- Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
TQQQ (#6)
- Win% 69 vs 59
- ER 1.1% vs -0.1%
- Score 0.45 vs 0.0
- RS +0.1% vs +0.0%
- Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口：No Trade
SPY Pass Score 0.03 未达阈值
QQQ Weak QQQ -0.01%
Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
Macro Event High uncertainty Fed Headlines、Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk