Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 8
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 36.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 36.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 31.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 49.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 set at session re-eval: ARM · ADVISORY

Primary changed vs Morning Ideal

↻ ARM SHORT · Ideal Entry Zone 268–270 · Live ER +3.55% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ ARM SHORT ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 70.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 53.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 53.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 57.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 47.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    Deutsche Bank May Win Russia Sanctions Lawsuit Against Linde

  2. Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    Gold Pares Losses as Iran, Waller Remarks Worsen Rate Outlook

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk (Iran) + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Deutsche Bank May Win Russia Sanctions Lawsuit Against Linde
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Gold Pares Losses as Iran, Waller Remarks Worsen Rate Outlook
  • commodity Oil Selloff 74 XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 725.5 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 725.5 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 725.5 (昨日低点) and 725.5 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 TQQQ
TQQQ ranked #1 because largest expected range + acceptable liquidity + best reward/risk
SHORT Intraday 36.0% 2.17% Reward/Risk 5.16 Entry Zone 73.44–73.88 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$73.97 $72.06 Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation · 上行空间 <1.0% Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $73.97 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 TSLA SHORT Intraday 54.0% 1.03% Reward/Risk 7.42 Entry Zone 395–396 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$396.23 $391.6 Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $396.23 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 SMH SHORT Intraday 36.0% 2.79% Reward/Risk 87.68 Entry Zone 597.41–597.79 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$597.79 $580.94 Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation · 上行空间 <1.0% Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $597.79 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 NVDA SHORT Intraday 31.0% 1.63% Reward/Risk 13.36 Entry Zone 204.98–205.49 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$205.49 $201.9 News 8 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind NVDA short vs escalation · 上行空间 <1.0% Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $205.49 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
5 QQQ SHORT Intraday 54.0% 1.35% Reward/Risk 18.52 Entry Zone 715–716 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$716.2 $706.05 Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $716.2 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • META · Pass · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • SPY · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • AMD · Pass · No quote data
  • MU · Pass · No quote data
  • AVGO · Pass · No quote data
Bias Neutral ★★★☆☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE
Win Prob
Ideal Entry (frozen)
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target
R:R
P&L
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • Index Edge NO 指数方向不明或幅度不足
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.13 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Oil Selloff
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -1

Today's Biggest Risk

Low Breadth

  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk / Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Whipsaw
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →
Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-07-14-001 · Inflation is today's primary market driver

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (-1.25%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 16.21% +17.46%
UUP
QQQ -1.25% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →