Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 5
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ MU LONG MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 77.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ AVGO LONG 71.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ ARM LONG 71.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ AMD LONG 71.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 65.0% Avoid

#1:MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    The Stock Market Just Flashed a Warning Sign Only Seen Once Before in 155 Years

  2. Secondary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 The Stock Market Just Flashed a Warning Sign Only Seen Once Before in 155 Years
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Barclays’ Cau Says Stocks Can Look Past Middle East Volatility
  • commodity Oil Selloff 74 XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 709.4 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 709.4 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 709.4 (昨日低点) and 709.4 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 MU
MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability
LONG 77.0% 5.56% Reward/Risk 1.09 Entry Zone 982–988 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$935.0 $1039.88 RS vs QQQ +4.31% · 昨日强势 +6.8% 今日 gap 可控 · News 1 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $935.0 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 AVGO LONG 71.0% 5.6% Reward/Risk 3.20 Entry Zone 395.25–395.96 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$388.69 $417.76 RS vs QQQ +2.35% · 昨日强势 +8.6% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $388.69 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 ARM LONG 71.0% 2.23% Reward/Risk 0.59 Entry Zone 311–313 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$300.15 $318.83 RS vs QQQ +2.93% · 昨日强势 +3.8% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $300.15 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 AMD LONG 71.0% 2.85% Reward/Risk 1.05 Entry Zone 527–530 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$514.4 $543.81 RS vs QQQ +2.17% · 昨日强势 +3.6% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $514.4 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • SMH · Pass · RS vs QQQ +3.93% · Volume 信号
  • NVDA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +3.34% · News 3 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +2.07% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • SPY · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -1.17% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
Bias Bull ★★★★★
Best Trade MU · LONG · Stock · ER +5.56%
Direction LONG Swing
Win Prob 77.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 982–988 Above 985.1 (VWAP) vwap
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $999.88 Dist +1.50% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +5.56%
Stop / Target $935.0 → $1039.88
R:R Reward/Risk 1.09 · Risk:Reward 1:0.92
P&L +$54.74 / -$50.14
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 77%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS vs QQQ +4.31% · 昨日强势 +6.8% 今日 gap 可控 · News 1

#1:MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Highest Relative Strength 4.31 vs 3.93
  2. Largest Expected Range 8.0 vs 7.84
  3. Highest Probability 77.0 vs 71.0

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +12.0
  • Trend +10.0
  • Catalyst +5.0
  • Total 77.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$54.74
失败 Loss -$50.14
每股价差 Reward $54.74 / Risk $50.14 Reward/Risk 1.09 · Risk:Reward 1:0.92

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% Position 9.9% 1 unit(s) Max Loss $50.14

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $985.14 Confidence 77 vwap
  • VWAP $985.14 100%
Stop $935.0 Confidence 77 orb_low
  • ORB Low $935.0 100%
Target $1039.88 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • Expected Close $1039.88 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • AVGO (#2)
    • Win% 77 vs 71
    • ER 5.6% vs 3.9%
    • Score 1.54 vs 1.39
    • RS +4.3% vs +2.4%
    • R:R 1.09 vs 1.0
  • ARM (#3)
    • Win% 77 vs 71
    • ER 5.6% vs 2.1%
    • Score 1.54 vs 0.75
    • RS +4.3% vs +2.9%
    • R:R 1.09 vs 1.0
  • AMD (#4)
    • Win% 77 vs 71
    • ER 5.6% vs 1.8%
    • Score 1.54 vs 0.64
    • RS +4.3% vs +2.2%
    • R:R 1.09 vs 1.0
  • SMH (#5)
    • Win% 77 vs 66
    • ER 5.6% vs 1.1%
    • Score 1.54 vs 0.36
    • RS +4.3% vs +3.9%
    • R:R 1.09 vs 0.38
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • NVDA (#6)
    • Win% 77 vs 65
    • ER 5.6% vs 0.9%
    • Score 1.54 vs 0.3
    • RS +4.3% vs +3.3%
    • R:R 1.09 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.22 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk、Oil Selloff

Today's Biggest Risk

Geopolitical Risk / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw

  • Geopolitical Risk / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

Expected Value

EV $+31 (win +$55 @ 77.0% · loss -$50)

「做多 MU:在 985.14 附近入场,目标 1039.88,预期 +5.56%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →
Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-07-09-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Stock Edge

Why vs #2:MU RS +4.3% vs AVGO +2.4%;ER 4.0% vs 3.9%;Win% 77 vs 71;higher beta (5.0 vs 3.2);relative strength

final = win_prob(77%) × ER(4.0%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS vs QQQ +4.31%
  • 昨日强势 +6.8% 今日 gap 可控
  • News 1

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (0.98%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 17.15% +16.17%
UUP
QQQ 0.98% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
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12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
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